How to make decisions when plans change

When plans change suddenly, confirm what happened, establish the real decision deadline and identify the outcome you still need. Then compare available options and agree when to revisit the choice. A written decision does not remove uncertainty, but it makes the reasoning visible to you and everyone involved.

Clarify the change and the response deadline

Consider an illustrative example: two days before a small workshop, the venue says the room is unavailable. The organiser must decide where and how to hold the session. One fact is confirmed: the original room cannot be used. Whether another room is available and whether participants can join online are still unknown.

Find out when an answer is actually needed. The deadline may depend on notifying participants and preparing a different format. Separate the decision due now from details that can follow later. Assign responsibility so that several people do not send conflicting updates.

If several things have changed, list them separately. Losing the room does not automatically mean losing the facilitator, programme or purpose of the session.

Compare options under different conditions

The example has three possible directions: another venue, an online session or postponement. Check each against essential conditions: availability, participation by the people needed, resources and preparation time. An option that fails a mandatory requirement cannot be rescued by an attractive overall score.

The UK Government Office for Science's Futures Toolkit uses scenarios to explore different possible future conditions, rather than predict one outcome. It is designed for strategic work. The table below is our simplified example for checking a near-term decision.

These are neither probabilities nor an exhaustive list of outcomes. They identify information to obtain before choosing. If you cannot see alternative options, try the questions for reconsidering your first interpretation.

If it is still unclear what stopped progress, begin by examining the obstacle. The guide distinguishes missing time or skills from outside approval and helps match the next action to the cause.

Use a small check to obtain missing information

Start with an action that clarifies the choice without unnecessary commitments: ask about room availability, check with key participants or assess whether the practical exercise can work online. Make clear that you are gathering information and have not yet confirmed the final plan.

Some actions are harder to reverse than others. Before confirming a new arrangement, check which costs, promises and changes it creates for other people. Give a trial step an acceptable limit on time and resources, together with a reason to stop.

Confidence alone does not replace checking. In their 2009 paper, Kahneman and Klein link the likely quality of expert intuition to the predictability of the environment and opportunities to learn its regularities. A subjective sense of confidence is not a reliable measure of judgment accuracy.

Record the decision and explain the change

By the decision deadline, collect the confirmed answers. Record the chosen option, the reason for choosing it and the remaining unknowns. Tell participants the new format, time, required actions and whom to contact with questions.

For example: “We will meet online at the original time; the key participants have confirmed they can join. We have reduced the practical section to one exercise. The coordinator will send the link and materials.” This is an illustrative message to replace with your actual agreements.

If several people share the work, agree on each person's output and authority. Our guide to delegating a task covers those details.

Set a review point and learn from the outcome

Name an event that would require another check: the facilitator cannot confirm, an essential tool fails or participants report a new constraint. Give important conditions a review time as well. “We will see later” leaves the next action undefined.

After the workshop, compare the outcome with its purpose, and the decision with the information available when you made it. A poor outcome may reflect a new development; a good one does not prove that every assumption was sound. Record questions you should have asked earlier and update preparation for the next event.

For recurring surprises, see our guide to moving from reactive work to proactive planning. If the new conditions are becoming permanent, use the adaptability guide to revise the normal process.